predictive efficiency 中文意思是什麼

Then, this paper empirically tested the validation and predictive accuracy of different var risk management model in the domestic financial market. finally, with the analysis of modem financial risk management development trend and the current domestic financial risk management situation, this paper made a prospect for the application of this model in the construction of domestic financial risk management system. through the analysis, the main conclusions are as follows : ( l ) the traditional mean - variance model is the special example of the portfolio selection based on the var risk management model for the case that the returns of the portfolio are assumed to be normally distributed ; compared with the mean - variance model, the var risk management model is more comprehensive and accurate in the measurement of the portfolio risk, so based on the var model, the investors can allocate the asset more effectively. ( 2 ) the var risk management model can provide the timely and comprehensive risk information for the top risk manager, so it is very helpful to the improvement of total risk management efficiency. ( 3 ) based on the var model, the raroc performance valuation approach can reflect the real performance of the portfolio manager and provide the coherent standard for the allocation of risk limitation and the construction of the incentive compatibility constraint mechanism in the financial instiutions

通過研究分析，本文主要得出如下結論： （ 1 ）傳統的markowitz均值? ?方差模型僅僅是在資產組合收益率正態分佈假設條件下基於var風險管理模型進行資產組合選擇的特例，與均值? ?方差模型中的方差風險度量方法相比， var風險管理模型能夠更全面、更貼切地衡量資產組合的風險，且基於此模型能夠更有效地進行資產配置決策； （ 2 ） var風險管理模型能夠滿足更高層次風險管理者對風險信息的需求，有助於整體風險管理效率的提高； （ 3 ）基於var風險管理模型的raroc績效評價能夠反映資產組合管理人的真實業績，從而為金融機構風險限額的分配和激勵約束機制的制定提供統一的標準； （ 4 ）國內證券市場資產組合收益率服從正態分佈的假設明顯不成立，實證檢驗表明基於資產組合收益率正態分佈假設條件下的方差? ?協方差模型對國內資產組合風險的預測存在較大的偏差，由於文中證明在收益率正態分佈假設條件下基於方差? ?協方差模型進行資產組合選擇的結果等價于markowitz的均值? ?方差模型，因此，均值? ?方差模型對國內資產組合風險的預測同樣會存在著較大的偏差，而半參數var風險管理模型則能夠取得較好的預測衡量效果； （ 5 ） var風險管理模型符合未來金融風險管理的發展趨勢，基於var風險管理模型建立內容提要風險限額內控體系、風險信息披露體系和業績評價體系，並進行金融監管，將有助於國內金融機構內部風險管理方法和外部監管技術跟上國際金融風險管理的發展潮流。

An off - line algorithm of constrained model predictive control based on piecewise - linear feedback control law is presented to solve its potentially high on - line computational demand. the piecewise - linear feedback control law is off - line computed by lmi optimization problems and the on - line control computation reduces to the simple evaluation of the defined piecewise linear function, which makes the online computational efficiency significantly improved. 4

針對預測控制滾動優化命題的在線計算任務大，作者提出了一種基於分段反饋的離線預測控制演算法，通過離線求解線性矩陣不等式優化命題構造分段反饋控制律，在線運行時只需實施滿足條件的反饋控制律，極大地提高了控制器在線計算效率。