supply demand estimate 中文意思是什麼
supply demand estimate
解釋
供需估計-
First of all, i summarize the forecast model category and estimate each model in detail, then, i adopt different model to forecast demand, supply, bdi of bulk shipping market. as to demand forecast, i mainly focus on the imitating precision of primitive data, adopt grey forecast model, self - suited filter model separately, and then compose these models as a better one. as to supply forecast, i use econometrics model to describe the complicated relationship of demand, supply, bdi, gnp etc. as to bdi, i try to draw into market integrated factor, describe the relationship of bdi, supply, capacity, speed, rate of oil, navigating capital etc. then finally, i make afterwards evaluation of these models and then analyze future bulk shipping market in detail
對于需求預測，著重考慮對原始數據的擬合精度，經過模型比較優選論證，分別採用了灰色一階模型，改進的灰色二階、自適應過濾預測的加權組合模型，得到了相當高的擬合精度；對于供給預測，運用計量經濟模型對供給、需求、運價、 gnp 、進出口貿易額等多變量之間復雜的相互關系進行動態模擬，定量的反映出各變量之間的因果關系；對于運價預測，嘗試引入市場綜合因數概念，化繁為簡，通過描述運價與運力供給、載重噸、油耗、航速、燃油價格、航行成本等等諸多因素的關系來進行預測。 -
Then this paper goes on to the factors that affect the oil foreign trades, including domestic oil supply, domestic oil demand, the level of foreign trade development, exchange rates and changes caused by entering wto. in studying the supply and demand gap, this paper uses a supply and demand balance method to decide the gap and uses method of domestic energy consumption development and method of energy elastic coefficient to estimate the future demand
然後本文又分析了影響中國石油對外貿易趨勢的主要因素，重點對中國石油的供需因素進行了差額分析，分別運用中國能源消費增長趨勢、能源彈性系數法來大致預測了中國未來的石油需求，並通過供應和需求的對比，得出了中國未來所需要用石油對外貿易來彌補的供需缺口。
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