forecasting water level 中文意思是什麼

By using the yearly data of water - sand that is gotten by a couple of adjacent hydrologic station in yellow river lower reaches, this paper makes use of kinds of math methods looking for the nonlinear disturbance among all of the factors, and introduces the thinking of analysis, logic, conclusion, inference, and random to nonlinear hydrologic forecasting. it realizes the valid approximation of the water level process in erodible - bed channel

本文選擇黃河下游兩對相鄰水文站多年水沙資料，藉助多種數學方法尋找其中的非線性擾動項，將隨機數學中分析、邏輯、歸納、演繹、隨機的思考問題方式引入到非線性水文預報中，實現沖淤河道相應水位過程的有效擬合。

At first, this paper analyzes the factors of water - sand influencing water level of yellow river and the feasibility just using the factors of water - sand to study water level, and collects the corresponding data ; secondly, because there are strong nonlinear relation in the corresponding data, by meticulous theory analysis, this paper integrates basic nonlinear analysis method, theory of random analysis, method of least squares and so on. it puts forward a method which can get the high accuracy simulation of the data, perfects the multi - factor analysis of variable ( over three factors ) of the statistic ; thirdly, it applies the method to the approximation of corresponding water level process which belong to the capacity of sand of middle - high and middle - low, and get the high - accuracy simulation about the typical nonlinear relation ; at last, this paper definitudes the main influence mode that the capacity of sand. it mainly unite with other factors to work on the water level in the yellow river lower reaches ; mor eover, this paper analyzes the difficult point and the direction of improvement to realize the accuracy forecasting of the flood level of erodible - bed channel

首先，系統分析了影響黃河水位的水沙因素，及僅用水沙因素有效研究水位的可行性，並按變量對應思想採集它們的相應數據；其次，由於相應水位過程數據中含極強的非線性關系，本論文經細致的理論分析，將基本的非線性分析方法、統計建模方法、隨機分析理論、最小均方誤差原則等等數學理論及方法有機揉合，提出了能有效實現這類數據高精度擬合的分層篩選法，並改進了統計學中多因子（三個以上）方差分析法；再次，將這一方法用於黃河中高及中低含沙類洪水相應水位過程的擬合，實現了這一典型非線性關系的高精度擬合，各年汛期上下游相應洪水位過程的擬合誤差都較小；最後，明確黃河下游含沙量對水位的主要影響方式，即含沙量主要是與其它因素聯合對水位作用；另外分析了要實現變動河床洪水位過程準確預報的困難所在及改進方向。

Based on consider hereinbefore, this dissertation discusses several aspects on the problem of the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources as follows : ( 1 ) reviewed entirely the origin and evolvement of the concept " sustainable development ", stated and commented the study status in queue on " sustainable development " around national and international range, thorough discussed the science connotation about the concept " sustainable development " ; ( 2 ) looked back and commented across - the aboard some furthest basic concept and proposition related to groundwater resources, put forward self opinions on a few existent mistake points of view and chaos understandings ; ( 3 ) expatiated entirely on the content and meaning of the theory of changeable groundwater resources system, contrast with the traditional methods of groundwater resources calculation and evaluation, combined example to show the application of this theory ; ( 4 ) thorough analyzed the difficult and complexity to forecast the groundwater resources, fully stated the traditional methods of groundwater resources forecasting, pointed out the characteristic and applying condition of these forecasting method, introduced the main ideas and methods of wavelet analysis developed recently, and the matlab software be known as the fifths era computer language, and its accessory wavelet analysis toolbox, applied these methods and tools to analyze the groundwater dynamic curve, adopted the b - j method and morte - carlo method, combined with the theory of changeable groundwater resources system, discussed the new view on the forecast of groundwater resources ; ( 5 ) synthetically analyzed the characteristics and limitations of the present all kind of groundwater manage model, combined mathematical programming mathematical statistics random process and the theory of variation system of groundwater resources on the unite optimum attempter of surface water and groundwater, emphasized how to make the model more nicety, more simple, more practicality ; ( 6 ) analyzed the inside condition and outside condition to assure the sustainable and optimum exploi tation of groundwater resources, the inside conditions are the follows : correct resources idea, scientific methods of resources calculation and evaluation, credible forecast methods of resources, exercisable measures of resources management, the outside conditions are the follows : the development idea of high layer, the transform of manage system, the matched policy and rule of law, the adjusted of economy lever, the improve of cultural diathesis, the boosting up of water - saving consciousness and detail measures, the control of population rising, the prevention and cure of water pollute, the renew and rebuild of ecology ; ( 7 ) scan the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources from the high level of metagalaxy, earth system science, and philosophy ; lint out the more directions on groundwater resources

基於以上考慮，論文主要從以下幾方面對地下水資源可持續開發問題進行了比較深入的探討：全面回顧了「可持續發展」概念的由來與演變，對國內外「可持續發展」的研究現狀進行了述評，並對「可持續發展」概念的科學內涵進行了深入探討；對涉及地下水資源的一些最基本的概念和命題進行了全面的回顧和評述，對目前仍然存在的一些錯誤觀點和混亂認識提出了自己的見解；全面闡述了地下水資源變值系統理論的內容和意義，並與傳統的地下水資源計算評價方法進行了對比分析，結合實例具體說明了方法的應用；深入分析了地下水資源預測預報工作的極端重要性和復雜性，對傳統的地下水資源動態預測方法進行了全面的評述，指出了各類預測預報方法的特點及適用條件，對最近二十多年剛發展起來的小波分析技術的主要思想和方法及其應用范圍，以及號稱第五代計算機語言的matlab軟體和附帶的小波分析工具箱進行了介紹，並應用於地下水動態過程線的分析，採用時間序列中的b ? j法，蒙特卡羅方法，與地下水資源變值系統理論相結合，探討了地下水動態資料分析和地下水資源預測預報的新思路；綜合分析了現今各類地下水管理模型的特點及缺陷，將數學規劃、數理統計、隨機過程等與地下水變值系統理論相結合進行地表水地下水或多水源的聯合優化調度，使模型更準確、更實用；對保證地下水資源可持續開發的內部條件和外部條件進行了分析，內部河海人學博卜學位論文前言、摘要、目錄條件主要是正確的資源觀，科學的資源計算與評價方法，可靠的資源預測預報技術，可操作的資源管理措施，外部條件主要是高層發展思路、管理體制的變革、配套的政策法規、經濟杠桿的調節、人文素質的提高、節水意識的增強及具體節水措施、人口增長的控制、水體污染的防治、生態的恢復和重建等;從宇宙科學、地球系統科學及哲學的高度審視地下水資源的可持續開發;指出了地下水資源可持續開發的進一步研究方向。

Based on plenty of studying, this paper fulfils the function of inputting and outputting, querying, forecasting and dispatching. it can improve the level of water conservancy management and has high reference value for developing other water conservancy management system

本論文通過大量的研究工作，建立了一套以數據庫為核心，集數學統計、管理分析、預測評價模式和規劃模型為一體的信息系統，實現了水利信息的輸入、輸出、更新、傳輸、檢索與查詢等功能。

The main features in the study of flood forecasting and control system are as follows : ( 1 ) runoff generating and confluence theory and hydro - dynamic method are adopted to predict the water level of taihu lake and key nodes, the basin wide forecasting and control system with the function of real time correction has been first established in plain river network to meet the complicated flow conditions of taihu lake basin and to enhance the reliability of forecasting results ; ( 2 ) according to the rainfall in foreseen period multiple schemes can be made in the forecasting model and adjusted with time, which overcomes the errors caused by the uncertain rainfall in the foreseen period so as to make the forecasting results approach reality

本文所研究的預報調度系統有如下特點： （ 1 ）本系統採用產匯流理論和水動力學方法預報太湖及重要節點水位，首次在平原河網地區建立了具有實時校正功能的全流域預報調度系統。以適合太湖流域復雜的水力條件，增強預報的可靠性; （ 2 ）預報模型可以根據預見期降雨量進行多方案預報，並隨時間推移，可以實時進行調整，克服由於預見期降雨不確定引起的誤差，使預報結果更接近實際。

Measures were taken in structure designing to enlarge the discharging capacity of the spillway. in non - structure designing, the telemetric system was designed for forecasting the runoff and flood by monitoring the rainfall and water level of river station, and a warning system was designed to avoid downstream people from the dangerous situation of man - made flood

通過劃分取水口上游淤積、取水口淤積和流態、過機泥沙三個子系統，對三個方案的二維計算結果採用模糊集理論優化分析，結論是155方案，即洪水來臨時把庫水位降到64米方案為最優方案。