cyclical component 中文意思是什麼
cyclical component
解釋
循環分量-
Then the paper investigated the regularity of different oil indices using time series statistical analysis method, which suggested that there are some regular components in it, including long - term secular trend, seasonal component and long - term cyclical component. the irregular component also plays an important part in it, mainly including the policy of opec, war, all kinds of international convention for the prevention of pollution from tankers and so on. and then a study of simulation and forecasting performance of arima time series model was conducted to crude oil indices, evidence shows that arima model performs better, especially for short - term forecasting
在此基礎上，本文以時間序列分析作為基礎研究手段，以德國海運費率指數公布的1980年1月至1999年12月的四類油運費率指數為研究對象，分析了四類油運費率指數的長期變化趨勢、季節變化規律、長期周期循環變化規律和不規則變化規律，並應用arima時間序列模型對160000dwt以上的原油運費率指數進行了短期預測，取得了較好的預測效果。
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