random forecast 中文意思是什麼

Based on consider hereinbefore, this dissertation discusses several aspects on the problem of the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources as follows : ( 1 ) reviewed entirely the origin and evolvement of the concept " sustainable development ", stated and commented the study status in queue on " sustainable development " around national and international range, thorough discussed the science connotation about the concept " sustainable development " ; ( 2 ) looked back and commented across - the aboard some furthest basic concept and proposition related to groundwater resources, put forward self opinions on a few existent mistake points of view and chaos understandings ; ( 3 ) expatiated entirely on the content and meaning of the theory of changeable groundwater resources system, contrast with the traditional methods of groundwater resources calculation and evaluation, combined example to show the application of this theory ; ( 4 ) thorough analyzed the difficult and complexity to forecast the groundwater resources, fully stated the traditional methods of groundwater resources forecasting, pointed out the characteristic and applying condition of these forecasting method, introduced the main ideas and methods of wavelet analysis developed recently, and the matlab software be known as the fifths era computer language, and its accessory wavelet analysis toolbox, applied these methods and tools to analyze the groundwater dynamic curve, adopted the b - j method and morte - carlo method, combined with the theory of changeable groundwater resources system, discussed the new view on the forecast of groundwater resources ; ( 5 ) synthetically analyzed the characteristics and limitations of the present all kind of groundwater manage model, combined mathematical programming mathematical statistics random process and the theory of variation system of groundwater resources on the unite optimum attempter of surface water and groundwater, emphasized how to make the model more nicety, more simple, more practicality ; ( 6 ) analyzed the inside condition and outside condition to assure the sustainable and optimum exploi tation of groundwater resources, the inside conditions are the follows : correct resources idea, scientific methods of resources calculation and evaluation, credible forecast methods of resources, exercisable measures of resources management, the outside conditions are the follows : the development idea of high layer, the transform of manage system, the matched policy and rule of law, the adjusted of economy lever, the improve of cultural diathesis, the boosting up of water - saving consciousness and detail measures, the control of population rising, the prevention and cure of water pollute, the renew and rebuild of ecology ; ( 7 ) scan the sustainable and optimum exploitation of groundwater resources from the high level of metagalaxy, earth system science, and philosophy ; lint out the more directions on groundwater resources

基於以上考慮，論文主要從以下幾方面對地下水資源可持續開發問題進行了比較深入的探討：全面回顧了「可持續發展」概念的由來與演變，對國內外「可持續發展」的研究現狀進行了述評，並對「可持續發展」概念的科學內涵進行了深入探討；對涉及地下水資源的一些最基本的概念和命題進行了全面的回顧和評述，對目前仍然存在的一些錯誤觀點和混亂認識提出了自己的見解；全面闡述了地下水資源變值系統理論的內容和意義，並與傳統的地下水資源計算評價方法進行了對比分析，結合實例具體說明了方法的應用；深入分析了地下水資源預測預報工作的極端重要性和復雜性，對傳統的地下水資源動態預測方法進行了全面的評述，指出了各類預測預報方法的特點及適用條件，對最近二十多年剛發展起來的小波分析技術的主要思想和方法及其應用范圍，以及號稱第五代計算機語言的matlab軟體和附帶的小波分析工具箱進行了介紹，並應用於地下水動態過程線的分析，採用時間序列中的b ? j法，蒙特卡羅方法，與地下水資源變值系統理論相結合，探討了地下水動態資料分析和地下水資源預測預報的新思路；綜合分析了現今各類地下水管理模型的特點及缺陷，將數學規劃、數理統計、隨機過程等與地下水變值系統理論相結合進行地表水地下水或多水源的聯合優化調度，使模型更準確、更實用；對保證地下水資源可持續開發的內部條件和外部條件進行了分析，內部河海人學博卜學位論文前言、摘要、目錄條件主要是正確的資源觀，科學的資源計算與評價方法，可靠的資源預測預報技術，可操作的資源管理措施，外部條件主要是高層發展思路、管理體制的變革、配套的政策法規、經濟杠桿的調節、人文素質的提高、節水意識的增強及具體節水措施、人口增長的控制、水體污染的防治、生態的恢復和重建等;從宇宙科學、地球系統科學及哲學的高度審視地下水資源的可持續開發;指出了地下水資源可持續開發的進一步研究方向。

Secondly, based on the characteristic datum extracted from the datum of daily peak load, the probability model of the nature random part of power load is established ; the grey gm ( 1, 1 ) model is improved to forecast the basis part of power load ; after the relation model is established on the basis of the researching the relationship between the climate part of power load and climate factors, the probability model of the climate part of power load is established combined with the tentative probability model of temperature

然後，在日最大負荷數據中提取自然隨機分量的特徵數據，建立其概率模型並實現參數估計；改進灰色gm （ 1 ， 1 ）模型，完成年最大負荷中基礎負荷分量預測；研究氣候負荷與各氣候因素的關系，建立合理的氣候負荷與溫度關系模型，結合假設溫度概率模型，完成年最大負荷中氣候負荷分量的概率模型建立。

Firstly, the forecast problem based on vendor managed inventory ( vmi, for short ) model is talked about. according to inventory demand changing with season and some random factors existing in actual problem, a new algorithm composed of a random time series forecast method and gm ( 1, 1 ) is put forward, and a mathematic model is constructed to analyze history data. as a result, the precision of the requirement forecast is increased greatly

本文首先研究了供應商管理庫存（ vendormanagedinventory ，簡稱vmi ）模式下分散式庫存需求的預測方法，根據庫存需求數據具有季節性變化的特點，並考慮到這一變化的不確定性，採用基於隨機時間序列和灰度預測的組合預測演算法對問題進行建模，並在此基礎上進行分析預測，從而使數據擬合有很大程度的提高。

When the load of agriculture and illume is forecasted, the load is decomposed into stationary terms that is not related to meteorologic factors and random term that is related to meteorologic factors by use of wavelet analysis. because the forecasting accuracy of stationary term is higher and the amplitude of random term, although it is difficult to forecast, is smaller, so the impact of forecasting error bringing about by random factors on final forecasting result is weakened

在預測不同行業的負荷時，利用小波分析的方法對農業和照明負荷序列進行分解，然後將頻率較低的部分視為與氣象因素無關的穩定項進行處理，將頻率較高的部分視為與氣象因素相關的隨機項進行處理，由於穩定項預測精度高，隨機項雖較難預測但幅值較小，因此削弱了隨機因素帶來的預測誤差對最終結果的影響。

In this dissertation, put forward a practical modal to forecast the probability of human error and analyze the effect of reliability as a result of human error based on the analysis of cause and effect of human error during construction ; put forward the model of considering the effect of human error and the practically method of calculate fuzzy - random reliability considering the effect of human error ; popularize the theory of traditional random reliability to the theory of fuzzy - random reliability, and discuss the theory of reliability of the whole - course in structural life ; put forward the countermeasure to reduce human error according to the fact

本文通過對施工過程中人為錯誤的因果分析，建立了比較實用的人誤概率預測模型，分析了施工過程中人為錯誤對結構可靠度的影響；提出了考慮人為錯誤影響的結構模糊隨機可靠度的模型和實用的計算方法，將傳統的隨機可靠度理論推廣到模糊隨機可靠度理論；還探討了結構生命全過程可靠度理論，並結合實際情況提出了減少人為錯誤的對策。

Last, according the correlation distance of the random fields and the division, the information management system of geotechnical exploration is developed, which can query and forecast the geotechnical parameters

最後，根據隨機場的相關距離和分區進行了巖土工程勘察信息管理系統的研製。本系統可以進行巖土參數的預測查詢功能。

The research work involves several aspects as follows : 1 by the application of gray theory, gm model was established to analyze, develop and forecast the changing disciplinarian and relationship among all random variables of gravity dam, and it is applied to analyze the time - depended reliability of structure

具體工作主要有： 1應用了灰色理論，建立了gm模型對重力壩各隨機變量的發展變化規律及其相互關系進行了分析、補充及預測，並應用到結構可靠性分析中對結構進行時變可靠度分析。

We can ration analyze and estimate hardware configure chosen in design such as machine tool, the capacity of buffer, the route of transport system etc, and personnel deployment of product line. we can forecast the produce cycle of product, analyze and forecast produce capacity of work - flow, simulate all kinds of predictable or random malfunction, finding bottleneck of system etc. we can also forecast the capability of work - flow under different scheduling strategy

通過對流水線的模擬，我們可以對各種設計方案進行評估，可以定量分析與評價設計中所確定的硬體配置（如機床、緩沖庫容量、運輸系統路徑等）及生產線人員配備情況，預測產品生產周期，分析與預測生產線的生產能力，模擬各種可預見的或隨機的故障，發現系統瓶頸等。